How McLaren can set a constructors’ record in Baku

McLaren can wrap up the 2025 Formula 1 constructors’ championship title at this weekend’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix, setting a new record in the process.

The current leader will eclipse Red Bull’s previous mark of the earliest constructors’ championship confirmation in terms of races remaining if it secures the title this weekend, with seven rounds still to run after Baku. During its dominant 2023 season – when Red Bull won all but one of the 24 races – there were still six rounds remaining when it confirmed the constructors’ championship.

To beat that mark, first and foremost McLaren needs to outscore Ferrari by nine points. That means a one-two or one-three finish will be enough to guarantee the title, regardless of what second-placed Ferrari achieves. Should Ferrari take a one-two or one-three, then McLaren will not be able to mathematically secure the championship in Baku, but if Ferrari wins with one of its cars, second and third would be enough for McLaren.

Secondary to the points situation against Ferrari, McLaren also needs to ensure it does not lose points to two other teams. Mercedes and Red Bull are both still mathematically in range, but it would take a significant swing in results in Azerbaijan to keep them in the frame.

As well as outscoring Ferrari, as long as McLaren does not lose more than 12 points to Mercedes, and more than 33 points to Red Bull, the title will be confirmed.

Only once this season – in Canada – has any team outscored McLaren, with three doing so after Lando Norris retired following contact with Oscar Piastri. On that occasion, Mercedes scored strongly with a victory for George Russell and third place for Kimi Antonelli, earning 40 points and outscoring McLaren by 28, while Ferrari and Red Bull each picked up 18 points to McLaren’s 12.

From a drivers’ championship perspective, only the top six of Piastri, Norris, Max Verstappen, Russell, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton remain mathematically able to win the title, but Hamilton will be officially ruled out after Baku unless he outscores Piastri by eight points (or nine points if Hamilton doesn’t win the race).